After the first half of the Big 12 Conference schedule saw Utah bounce back and forth between alternating home games and road games, the Runnin’ Utes have a bit more stability in the back half of the league schedule.
Starting with Utah’s loss at West Virginia last Saturday, the Utes will play an eight-game stretch where they alternate two-game slates, with two two-game home stretches and a pair of those on the road.
That leaves the Utes with trying to earn the team’s second true road win when they face Cincinnati at Fifth Third Arena on Tuesday (5 p.m. MST, ESPN+).
Is this Utah’s best remaining chance to earn another road victory?
At this point, Utah is 1-5 in true road contests, with the lone victory coming at TCU on Jan. 15.
There have been a couple recent matchups where win probabilities were more favorable, but the Utes (13-10, 5-7 Big 12) fell behind early in losing at Oklahoma State and West Virginia over the past 10 days.
Against the Mountaineers, West Virginia went on a 10-3 run to end the first half and created some separation. While the Utes were able to cut their deficit to six with 8:30 to play, the Mountaineers went on another run to put the game away in a 72-61 contest.
This won’t be the first time the Utes and Bearcats have met this season.
Two weeks ago, Utah beat Cincinnati 69-66 at the Huntsman Center in a slug-it-out matchup that helped the Utes shake off a rough week there Houston and Baylor both handed them blowout losses.
The biggest storyline to watch in Tuesday’s rematch at Cincinnati is the Madsen brothers’ return to their former school.
Gabe Madsen suited up just a few games for Cincinnati as a freshman before transferring to Utah, while his brother Mason Madsen lasted a couple years at Cincinnti before heading to Boston College, then Salt Lake City this season for his final year of eligibility.
Gabe Madsen scored 18 points in the previous matchup between Utah and Cincinnati in Salt Lake City, and hit a pair of late free throws to give the Utes a three-point lead.
“It’s an ugly game sometimes, and we’ll figure all that stuff out,” Madsen said at the time. “But you know, obviously, that’s how it went tonight, and we found a way and it feels good.”
The win probability for Utah at Cincinnati isn’t great — ESPN gives the Utes a 24% chance for a victory, while KenPom (26%) and Torvik (24%) are in the same range.
Utah’s best odds for a road win down the stretch come at UCF on Feb. 23 in a Sunday afternoon matchup a stone’s throw from Disney World.
In that game, Utah is viewed as the underdog as well, but ESPN gives the Utes a 38.5% win probability, while KenPom is at 31% and Torvik at 27%.
Cincinnati is coming into Tuesday’s game on a bit of a high, though.
While Big 12 play has been difficult for the Bearcats (14-9, 4-8 Big 12), they have won two straight.
That includes a 10-point win at UCF, where Cincinnati broke out of an offensive funk by scoring 93, and a blowout win over BYU last Saturday at home.
The Bearcats’ 84-66 victory over the Cougars was their largest margin of victory in league play, as Jizzle James led Cincinnati with 24 points and the Bearcats outscored BYU 45-24 after halftime.
Utah, meanwhile, is staring at the possibility of falling three games below .500 in Big 12 play if the Utes lose Tuesday.
That comes before a two-game home stretch where Utah will host No. 17 Kansas on Saturday (8 p.m. MST, ESPN) and hard-charging Kansas State, which has won five straight and three over ranked opponents, next Monday (7 p.m. MST, ESPN2).
