Jake Osgathorpe shares his best bets for Sunday’s Premier League matches, including Leicester v Tottenham.
- Jake’s Predictions: Staked 294.75pts | Returned 324.06pts | P/L +29.31pts | ROI 10%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday
1pt Jean-Philippe Mateta to score anytime in C Palace vs Brentford (14:00) at 19/10 (Unibet)
1pt Leicester to score first vs Spurs (14:00) at 2/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Vladamir Coufal to win 2+ fouls in Aston Villa vs West Ham (16:30) at 10/3 (Betfair)
2pts Alex Iwobi 1+ shot on target in Fulham vs Man Utd (19:00) at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Crystal Palace vs Brentford
Crystal Palace are cooking at the moment. They’ve really found themselves after a slow start and look set for another fast finish to the season. The Eagles welcome Brentford having suffered just one defeat in 11 league games, which came at the hands of Arsenal, winning three of their last four.
The hosts looks a nice price for the win here, but I think the 19/10 available for JEAN-PHILIPPE MATETA TO SCORE ANYTIME is the best bet of the game.
Brentford have struggled on the road this season, losing seven of 10, with their sole win coming at bottom side Southampton. Only the three promoted teams have allowed more xGA per game away from home than the Bees (1.85), so Oliver Glasner’s men will create chances in this one.
Mateta is averaging 0.52 xG per 90 since March last year, so should see at least two good scoring chances, and as Tom Carnduff highlighted in his Notebook column, Mateta is an extremely streaky striker.
The Frenchman scored in eight of his final 11 league games of last season – netting 12 goals in total – and heads into this game having scored in three straight matches.
After a slow start to the season, likely down to a combination of his participation at the 2024 Olympics and the changes in the Palace team with Michael Olise leaving, expect him to finish fast now he’s back up to speed and has a solid set-up behind him.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Tottenham vs Leicester
I have absolutely no trust in either of these two teams, and why would anyone? Tottenham have won just one of their last 10 league games, that coming against basement dwellers Southampton, and have failed to win any of their last six home league games. Leicester have lost seven straight in the top flight.
Spurs got an important win in the Europa League in midweek, putting them back in the top eight, and finishing in the automatic qualifying spots should be of paramount importance given their thin squad and numerous injuries. The last thing they need is an extra two-legged knockout tie in an already hectic schedule.
This game is sandwiched between European dates, which could be problematic, as the Carabao Cup and Europa League offer the best chance of qualifying for Europe next season. We shouldn’t be surprised to see them rest and rotate ahead of those matches moving forward, even if options are in short supply.
Already this season we have seen Ange Postecoglou’s side struggle with the midweek-weekend schedule. They have played 13 games the weekend after a midweek match, be it Carabao Cup, Premier League or Europe, and have won just four, losing six times. Three of those wins came in the first five of those matches when healthier as a squad, meaning it’s one win in the last eight such games (at Southampton).
Interestingly, Ipswich took advantage at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium after a midweek European game, while Wolves avoided defeat following a midweek Premier League match – two sides fighting for survival. So, don’t be surprised if the Foxes spring a surprise here.
I’m not going to be backing the visitors to win, with Spurs’ firepower more than capable of scoring three or four against this Leicester backline, but I think there is value in backing LEICESTER TO SCORE FIRST at 2/1.
Perhaps surprisingly, backing the visitors to score first at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this league season would have been a very profitable exercise, with the angle winning seven times in 11 home matches.
All of Wolves, Ipswich, West Ham and Brentford opened the scoring when travelling to North London, so let’s hope Spurs are once again jaded after a Thursday away game and start slowly.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Aston Villa vs West Ham
Another tough game to call. Villa’s record in matches following a midweek game from any competition reads W2 D4 L10, with the two victories coming against Wolves and Southampton early in the season. That’s enough for me to swerve the hosts at 4/7.
However, I still can’t bring myself to back West Ham, especially with them still having no out-and-out goalscorer, and with their attack just nowhere near good enough. In Graham Potter’s three games they have generated an average of just 0.67 xGA per game, being held at arm’s length by all over Aston Villa (FA Cup), Fulham and Crystal Palace, only beating the Cottagers due to being handed two goals.
One bet has caught the eye though, and it is a little bit rogue. With Jean-Clair Todibo injured and Konstantinos Mavropanos suspended, West Ham are light at right centre-back, meaning we could see VLADAMIR COUFAL play in that role behind Aaron Wan-Bissaka, and it’s his price TO WIN 2+ FOULS that has drawn me in.
It’s 10/3 with Betfair, and anyone who watched the FA Cup meeting between these two will get my train of thinking. Coufal was a second-half substitute in that game, with Potter starting in a 4-2-3-1 formation but being forced to switch to a back five after Crysencio Summerville went off injured, and Coufal caught the eye for his foul-winning ability.
With West Ham playing out from the back in a patient manner under Potter, and with the Hammers looking to create overloads and switch the ball early, the Czechia international saw plenty of the ball as the over- or under-lapping centre-back and was hacked down three times in 45 minutes.
If he does start, his link-up with Aaron Wan-Bissaka will be a key area for West Ham to play out, and with Villa happy to make soft fouls, there’s every chance Coufal again racks up a decent foul tally. His spot in the team isn’t guaranteed, so if he is on the bench, please cash this bet out.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Fulham vs Manchester United
Manchester United are a big price to win at Craven Cottage, but I will not be drawn in. The Red Devils snatched a late win against Rangers in midweek, and their away record in the league is extremely poor. They’ve won just two of 10, one of those being Southampton and the other a smash-and-grab Manchester derby success.
Fulham have lost just two of 11 home games but their problem has been winning at Craven Cottage, which they’ve managed just four times. I’ll happily swerve the 1X2 markets then, even if I do think the hosts are the most likely winners, with the draw a definite runner.
Instead, the even-money available for ALEX IWOBI 1+ SHOT ON TARGET looks on the large side, with the Nigerian posting a very solid shot on target record at home when playing out wide. The same bet is as short as 2/5 in places and upwards of 1/2 strikes me as value.
He’s landed this bet in six of the nine home games he has played as a winger, firing 12 in total across that sample at an average of 1.43 per 90.
Since Ruben Amorim took over at Manchester United, the Red Devils have conceded a low average of 10.8 shots per 90 but, their shot on target faced average is a whopping 4.1. That means 38% of all shots they’ve faced have either gone in or forced Andre Onana into a save.
Away from home they have faced 4.8 shots on target per game in Amorim’s time in charge, and a strong Fulham team should hit that target at least on Sunday evening, so let’s hope Iwobi fires one of them.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Saturday selections
Saturday 15:00
1pt Tyler Adams to be carded in Bournemouth vs Forest at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Morgan Gibbs-White to be carded in Bournemouth vs Forest at 33/10 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Tyler Adams and Gibbs-White to be carded in Bournemouth vs Forest at 17/1 (BetVictor)
1pt Jesper Lindstrum 3+ tackles in Brighton vs Everton at 23/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Alexander Isak to score anytime at 10/11 in Southampton vs Newcastle at 10/11 (bet365)
1.5pts Kyle Walker-Peters 1+ total shot in Southampton vs Newcastle at 13/10 (Unibet)
2pts Gabriel Magalhaes 1+ headed shot in Wolves vs Arsenal at 10/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime in Wolves vs Arsenal at 7/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 17:30
1.5pts Chelsea to score 2+ goals vs Man City at 11/10 (Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Cole Palmer to score anytime in Chelsea vs Man City at 7/4 (bet365, Boylesports)
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
What a cracking game this should be. Two of the success stories of the season so far, two sides pushing for Europe and two sides bang in form. Bournemouth are unbeaten in 10 Premier League games, winning six of those, while Forest have won seven of their last eight.
You could make a case for any of the three results here, so I’ll swerve the 1X2, and given the appointment of referee Craig Pawson (4.62 cards per game in 24/25 Premier League), I’ll focus my attentions on cards.
While last week’s hero Ryan Christie is again an appealing price to be booked, this game should be played in a completely different manner. At St James’ Park it was an open contest and something of a ‘press-fest’ with both teams going for the jugular at every opportunity. This should resemble more of an attack vs defence, with Forest content to sit in and frustrate, which could lead to limited opportunities for Christie to snap into tackles.
Instead, with Forest sure to play on the counter, it could be TYLER ADAMS who is called into action more, and who has more opportunity TO BE CARDED as he is tasked with stopping transitions.
He’s 7/2 to be booked here and as well as putting fires out, he’ll have work to do containing Morgan Gibbs-White. The Englishman has started 18 league games this season and the deepest opposing midfielder has been carded in 15 of them – Flynn Downes being the latest last weekend.
Add in the fact that Adams has averaged 2.43 fouls per 90 minutes and has four cards to his name in limited minutes (0.53 per 90), and 7/2 looks a whopping price.
Speaking of GIBBS-WHITE, at 16/5 I can’t resist putting him up TO BE CARDED too. He has after all been carded in six times this season, collecting four yellows in his last 10 league outings.
He gives as good as he gets, and gets booked every which way you can think of. Dissent – check (vs Liverpool, City), stopping a counter attack by holding – check (vs Brentford, Brighton), traditional foul – check (vs Ipswich, Wolves).
Gibbs-White loves the battle, winning 1.51 fouls per 90 and committing 1.63 fouls per 90 this season, so playing the ADAMS AND GIBBS-WHITE CARD DOUBLE is worth a small bet.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Brighton vs Everton
The theory in Brighton games is to back the opposing right back in tackles markets. However, watching David Moyes’ side against Spurs has me believing that it’s Everton right winger JESPER LINDSTRUM we should target this weekend.
He was touch-tight to his right back Jake O’Brien in that match, making five tackles to O’Brien’s none, making the 23/10 available for 3+ TACKLES appeal on the south coast.
Generally, opposing right backs against Brighton have averaged 3.6 tackles per game this season largely down to Kaoru Mitoma, hitting 3+ in 16 of the 20 games the Japanese winger has started.
But I suspect O’Brien will operate more as a right centre-back here, with Lindstrum almost a wing-back, so I’ll happily take the chance the latter is the one drawn into the duels.
So far this season the Dane is averaging 3.43 tackles per 90, so there is every chance he hits the required line even if he isn’t pinned back as I expect him to be.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Liverpool vs Ipswich
Finding a bet in a game where a team is 1/12 is always tough. Every market is short for the favourites, while the underdogs have shown little to suggest they can do much of anything at Anfield.
I’ll sit this one out from a betting perspective, though I do expect a comfortable home win for the Reds.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Southampton vs Newcastle
Newcastle should win this game comfortably, quite simply because Southampton are so bad. I’m immediately drawn to ALEXANDER ISAK TO SCORE ANYTIME at an incredibly backable 10/11 with bet365 against the league’s worst side. He’s a best price 4/6 elsewhere.
The case is pretty simple really. Newcastle will create an abundance of chances against the worst defensive team in the league, a side who have allowed nearly 3.0 xGA per game at St. Mary’s this season – their poor fans.
Isak will be on the end of plenty of those opportunities, averaging 0.69 xG per 90, and will surely finish one of them, just as he has in eight of his last nine league games. His blank against Bournemouth, and Newcastle’s poor performance in that game, is easily forgiven, with that being the Magpies 10th game in 36 days. A busy schedule certainly caught up with them.
With a week off, they and Isak will be fresh and champing at the bit to put the defeat to the Cherries in the rearview mirror.
I’ll also have a bet on KYLE WALKER-PETERS 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 13/10, with the same bet 4/9 in places. Anything around the even-money mark looks good.
KWP has been playing at left-wing, a position that sees him cut inside onto his right foot, regularly resulting in a shot on goal.
That has been the case in his last three home matches, despite two of them being blowouts. In 5-0 defeats to Tottenham and Brentford he fired one and three shots, and he took two shots in the narrow loss to West Ham.
Despite being cut adrift at the bottom, the hosts will have a go here, and Walker-Peters looks the best way into a somewhat ‘pro-Southampton’ bet.
Score prediction: Southampton 0-4 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Wolves vs Arsenal
Wolves are the worst team in the league by a long way when it comes to defending set-pieces. Arsenal are the best team at attacking them by a long way, too.
You know where I’m going with this don’t you?
GABRIEL MAGALHAES is priced at 7/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME and that’ll do me nicely.
Wolves have conceded 19 goals from set-pieces this season, conceding 2.57 xGA and three goals from dead-ball situations in their last four outings. Tosin was the latest centre-back to profit after netting on Monday, though had Noni Madueke not stolen Nathanial Chalobah’s goal it would’ve two in the same game.
We were on Gabriel in the North London derby where I think we all thought he’d scored, only for it to be ruled an own goal, but even without that he has five goals to his name this season, a goals per 90 of 0.26 and an xG per 90 of 0.17 – both league-leading among centre-backs.
He warmed up nicely for this too with a three-shot, 0.41 xG performance in the first 30 minutes of Arsenal’s Champions League game with Dinamo Zagreb. Had he scored there, we would likely be looking at a price closer to 5/1, so the 7/1 is incredibly generous against such a poor team at defending set-pieces.
If you don’t want to chance him at a big price to score, can I perhaps tempt you with GABRIEL 1+ HEADED SHOT at 10/11?
Given the opponent, this price looks massive for the Brazilian to just meet a corner or free-kick. Of his 18 shots this season, 14 have come via his noggin, with the bet landing in 12 of his 20 starts, including in the reverse.
Score prediction: Wolves 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Manchester City vs Chelsea
I feel like everyone was getting carried away with the ‘City are back rhetoric’ following a run of four wins and a draw, but it seemed people had overlooked how soft of a schedule they had faced. Leicester, West Ham pre-Potter, Brentford, Salford and Ipswich.
So, it was no surprise to see them completely undone by an elite team in the Champions League, losing 4-2 to PSG, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Chelsea give them the same treatment. City’s issues remain the same, with that easy schedule masking them, but it’s still clear that if you take the game to Pep Guardiola’s side, they are incredibly vulnerable.
Enzo Maresca, Pep’s former assistant, would love nothing more than to get one over on his old mentor in his own backyard, and with just two points between the teams in the table, it could be a huge game with big ramifications on a top four finish.
The Blues have been excellent travellers this season, sitting third for points and third for xG process on the road, and I think recent struggles against Everton, Ipswich and Palace can be forgiven, with all three sides sitting deep and frustrating them. City won’t take that approach.
With City’s attack looking decent and Chelsea’s backline still somewhat questionable, I’ll swerve a bet on an away win, but instead I’ll back CHELSEA TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 11/10.
Taking this avenue means we need not worry about what City do in attack, and should they win 3-2 we’ll still have a nice winner. Prior to City’s softer schedule, Pep’s side had conceded two or more goals in 11 of 12 in all competitions, while Brentford netted twice and PSG put four past the hapless City defence in midweek.
Across the last 12 league games too, the reigning champions have conceded a huge 1.75 xGA per game, highlighting just how leaky they have been over a long period of time.
With Chelsea fancied to back a couple of goals, the 7/4 about COLE PALMER SCORING ANYTIME looks large.
Palmer has scored 14 times in the league this season, with that figure perhaps going under the radar with many, netting in six of his last 10 league games. His xG per 90 average of 0.56 is extremely impressive and suggests he will be on the end of at least a couple good chances against his former team on Saturday.
Add in the fact that he is on penalties duty as well, and the price on offer looks way too big in what could be a really high-scoring contest.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 33
- Liverpool 3-0 Ipswich
- Wolves 0-2 Arsenal
- Southampton 0-4 Newcastle
- Manchester City 2-3 Chelsea
- Crystal Palace 2-1 Brentford
- Aston Villa 2-0 West Ham
Saturday’s tips – Odds correct at 1015 GMT (24/01/25)
Sunday’s 14:00 tips – Odds correct at 1350 (24/01/25)
Sunday’s 16:30 and 19:00 tips – Odds correct at 1555 (24/01/25)
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