Game Preview #42: New Jersey Devils @ San Jose Sharks

The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (24-14-3) @ San Jose Sharks (12-23-6)

The Time: 4:00pm ET

The Broadcast: MSGSN, NBCSCA, Devils Radio Network

Last Devils Game

New Jersey battled the Los Angeles Kings on New Years Day, and suffered a 3-0 shutout loss. Timo Meier scored for the Devils, but his goal was inexplicably reversed on a phantom goaltender interference call.

Last Sharks Game

San Jose hosted the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, and they actually managed to squeak out a 2-1 win. Yaroslav Askarov made 24 saves on 25 shots, while Mario Ferraro and old friend Tyler Toffoli each lit the lamp in the win.

Last Devils-Sharks Game

It happened on November 10th, and it was an immensely frustrating 1-0 loss. The only goal of the game was a bankshot off Timo Meier and into his own net, and the now much richer Mackenzie Blackwood made 44 saves in the shutout.

Bottom Of The Barrel

There’s been a lot of discourse surrounding the bottom-6 recently. Gerard wrote about this yesterday, and it’s a good look at the issues and potential solutions. What issues you might ask? These issues:

Just look at that list. Only Dawson Mercer has anything resembling solid point production in that time, exactly doubling the output of everyone else on the list combined.

In addition to Gerard, old pal CJ took a crack at trying to figure out what to do with the bottom-6:

It’s a pretty long thread, so I’ll summarize: He thinks the third line players (Mercer, Erik Haula, and Paul Cotter) are valuable individually, but their styles are such mismatches for one another that it handicaps them badly. He also thinks Justin Dowling is a big upgrade over Curtis Lazar due to Dowling’s strong defensive metrics, though CJ admits Lazar might still be getting back up to speed after his injury. He thinks Nate Bastian and Tomas Tatar are mostly fine. He also thinks Mercer does quite well with Dougie Hamilton, so those two should share as much ice time as possible. Here’s how he’d do it:

So who’s right? Well nobody is. But nobody is wrong either. This is a problem that has more than one potential answer. It’s possible Gerard’s ideas would work, and it’s also possible CJ’s ideas would work. But regardless of whether something would work or not, the base issue remains: The bottom-6 has been a place where offense has gone to die over the past month or so, and something needs to change. Against a weak Sharks team, perhaps this is the game they finally break out.

But in case you want to see any big changes for today’s game, don’t hold your breath:

Dowling potentially drawing in for Tatar is notable, but otherwise it’s status quo. Whether it’s Sheldon Keefe or Tom Fitzgerald, a change might feel inevitable from some part of the Devils’ brain trust. Just not today.

Power Outage

You could argue that the Devils’ 5-0 beatdown of the rival New York Rangers on December 23rd was the high watermark of the season as far as vibes go. In that contest the Devils’ vaunted power play went 3-for-4, an absolute torching of the Rangers’ penalty kill unit. New Jersey’s power play has been a huge weapon all season long, ranking second in the entire league at 28.6%, behind only Winnipeg’s 32.0% success rate.

But the man advantage has had a few cold spells this season, and the Devils are currently mired in another one. That feel-good win against the Rangers? That was the last time New Jersey has scored a power play goal. They bafflingly did not get any power play opportunities in their next game against the Carolina Hurricanes, and then over their current three-game losing streak, the Devils have gone 0-for-10. This includes a dismal 0-for-6 effort against the Kings on New Years Day, though some of those opportunities were abbreviated.

In those three games, the Devils have scored 2, 2, and 0 goals overall. The offense has shriveled up. Some of that is good defense by the other team, some of that is good goaltending by the other team, some of that is bad luck, and some of that is poor execution. Whatever combination of those you want to blame, the fact is New Jersey is not getting anywhere close to the level of production out of its power play since the Christmas break.

The good news is the sample size is tiny, a mere three games. I absolutely do not expect the power play woes to continue, eventually this unit will start filling the net again. But for now, the power play running cold has cost the Devils plenty of goals. San Jose enters this game with a penalty kill success rate of 79.1%, 17th in the league. A thoroughly middling unit, and one that New Jersey could definitely break the scoreless streak against.

How The Sharks Will Be Swimming

Or in other, less confusing words, what will the Sharks’ lineup look like today? Well the team is dealing with a handful of injuries that make that question a bit difficult to answer.

Here’s a quick roundup of the injuries the Sharks are currently dealing with:

As far as the Sharks who “should be” available today, San Jose is probably the most happy about Mikael Granlund. The veteran forward is having an outstanding season, coming into today’s game with 11 goals and 35 points in 39 games. I don’t know if anyone expected Granlund to average close to a point per game, but he’s delivered.

Next is Nico Sturm, who was injured in the Sharks’ last game against Tampa Bay on Thursday:

He eventually returned to the bench, but according to San Jose head coach Ryan Warsofsky, Sturm will be a gametime decision.

Elsewhere, William Eklund, one of the Sharks’ promising young forwards, has missed roughly the last week with an upper-body injury. In 36 games this season, Eklund has produced seven goals and 27 points. Eklund was the 7th overall pick in the 2021 draft, and at 22-years old, he might be on the verge of blossoming into an impact player for San Jose.

And finally on the injury front, longtime franchise staple Marc-Edouard Vlasic started the season on IR, but made his season debut on Thursday against Tampa Bay. The 37-year old was eased back into action, playing 11:56 versus the Lightning. He did register an assist in his return, so he can officially say he’s averaging a point per game at the moment. Expect to see the veteran in the lineup today as well.

He’s For Real

The San Jose Sharks won the draft lottery this past offseason, and in turn won the honor of selecting Macklin Celebrini first overall. He might not have been on the level of Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews as far as prospect hype went, but Celebrini entered the 2024 draft as a prospect most people expected to become a star in the league. The consensus was that it might take a little while, but he’ll get there eventually.

They might have underestimated him.

No he’s probably not a star right now, but Celebrini has mostly exceeded expectations. Coming into today’s contest, he has 12 goals and 27 points in 29 games. Averaging almost a point per game is a major accomplishment for any player, but for an 18-year old? That’s special stuff.

Taking a look under the hood at the 5-on-5 numbers at Natural Stat Trick, Celebrini isn’t as impressive. He’s currently rocking an Expected Goals For% of 46.12%. He’s between 45%-47% in Corsi For%, Scoring Chances For%, and High Danger Corsi For% as well, not particularly good numbers. But it’s important to keep in mind that he’s playing on a truly terrible team, and his numbers are actually significantly better than the team as a whole. That means Celebrini is elevating his squad whenever he is on the ice despite the low raw numbers. Anyone’s metrics would crater given the lack of support Celebrini has had to work with. And again…he’s a teenager. It’s unfair to expect a teenager to drive play at a high level.

Celebrini is legit. He’s got skill for days, a motor that does not stop, and plenty of skating talent. Stopping him should be at the top of the game plan for Sheldon Keefe and the Devils today.

The Goal Is Simple

San Jose is amassing some impressive young talent, but make no mistake, this is a bad team. Their offense is bad (2.61 goals per game, 6th-worst in the league), and their defense is bad (3.49 goals allowed per game, 4th-worst in the league). According to Natural Stat Trick, the Sharks are dead last in the entire NHL in 5-on-5 xGF% at 42.85%. That is a truly horrific number. When your offense is bad, your defense is bad, and your puck possession game is at the bottom of the league, that doesn’t afford you many ways to win games.

But the Sharks somehow did that against New Jersey earlier this season. Perhaps it was a fluky win, but it was a win nonetheless. The Devils absolutely cannot look past anyone in this league, they just lost to the lowly Anaheim Ducks after all. But if they don’t look past the Sharks, play up to their capabilities, and take care of business, this should be the game where they get back in the win column. Simple as that.

Your Take

What are you expecting out of this game? Will the bottom-6 finally start producing again? Will the Devils snap their losing streak? As always, thanks for reading!