What a wonderful time of year it is to be a football fan. A crisp breeze in the air, the changing of the leaves, and holiday lights going up around the neighborhood. And of course, we just got our first snow game of the season. And it’s only going to get better as we inch closer to the fantasy football playoffs. A three-game slate of Thursday action this week, even a Friday night matchup to brighten our weekend, and all 32 NFL teams in play. What a wonderful time of year it is! Happy Thanksgiving Footclan, and thank you for being a part of the best community there is! Before we move on to Thanksgiving week, let’s take one last look back at Week 12 and use what we’ve learned to propel us toward the fantasy playoffs.
Don’t Fret Over Jefferson’s Bad Stretch
Justin Jefferson has been in an uncharacteristic three-game slump, averaging just 7.4 fantasy points in that span. He’s coming off a season-low 3.7 fantasy points in a game where Sam Darnold threw the ball 34 times, but Jefferson had just two receptions. His 15.6% target share in a full game was his lowest since 2022. On the flip side, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson have seen an uptick in targets, resulting in better fantasy outputs for the pair. Jefferson managers are undoubtedly frustrated with his usage over the last few games, but I see Addison and Hockenson’s involvement as a positive. The Vikings are still winning, and now opposing defenses have to prepare for more offensive firepower. It should hopefully lead to fewer double-teams on Jefferson. Number 18 is elite, but even the best players in the game go through slumps. As a Jefferson manager, your hope is that he’s getting these bad games out of the way now, so he can carry you through the fantasy playoffs with great matchups against the Cardinals, Falcons, and Seahawks coming up.
Keenan on the Comeback Trail
On Sunday Live, Jason called Keenan Allen irrelevant. Footclan, he was just saying out loud what we’ve all been thinking, much to the chagrin of our own Kyle Borgognoni, our resident Allen stan. So Allen responded with his best game of the season with nine catches for 86 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 15 targets. He heads into the Monday night game as the WR6, his second top-10 finish this year after a WR8 showing in Week 6. Other than that, he has been pretty much forgettable this season, but I have an inkling that is going to change now toward the end of the season. It’s a small sample size, but since Thomas Brown took over as the Bears’ offensive coordinator, Allen has seen a team-leading 29.1% target share in two games. The upcoming schedule isn’t ideal against top defenses like the Lions (twice) and Vikings again, but those defenses are known to shut down the run game and be more forgiving through the air. Rookie Caleb Williams will need to lean on Allen down the stretch as the Bears try to end their season on a high note. Allen is probably on a bunch of waivers right now, so pick him up if you have an open spot and monitor his play over the next couple of weeks. At the very least he could be a reliable starting option in Week 14, when six teams are on a bye.
Welcome Back, Waddle
Along with Allen, Jaylen Waddle was another wide receiver who needed a big game to give fantasy managers confidence moving forward. It had been a long time since his WR17 performance in Week 1, as he dropped all the way to WR77 from Weeks 2 through 11. Granted, he was missing Tua Tagovailoa for a stretch, but still, it was difficult to watch him play, especially if he was in your fantasy lineup. Usually, I’d prefer to see a player string together consecutive good games before going back into starting lineups, but Waddle is talented and proven, even though he’s struggled this year. The Dolphins’ offense has picked it up as of late, averaging 29 points over the last five games. Add Waddle back into the mix with a fun Thanksgiving matchup against Green Bay coming up on Thursday.
Rhamondre’s Run Might Be Over
In Weeks 8 and 9, Rhamondre Stevenson totaled 36 opportunities and scored four touchdowns, equating to 41.9 fantasy points (RB3). He continued to see massive volume the following two games (20 rushing attempts in both Week 10 and Week 11), but on Sunday saw just eight carries and didn’t have a catch in a plus matchup. What’s more, Antonio Gibson, who had been relegated to the third-string RB behind JaMycal Hasty, jumped up to 43% of snaps played at the RB spot. Gibson actually played one more snap than Stevenson. This is worrisome for Stevenson managers, especially considering that the Patriots’ schedule is RB-friendly the rest of the way (minus the Chargers in championship week). A loss next week to the Colts and another poor performance from Stevenson might lead New England into its bye week with a change of plan in mind for the running backs moving forward.
LaPorta’s Usage Pointing Up
Sam LaPorta has been one of the bigger disappointments in fantasy this year considering his draft capital. Last year’s TE1 has dropped all the way to TE14 this season and has just three games with double-digit fantasy points. He only caught three passes for 19 yards on Sunday, but he was targeted six times, a subtle yet encouraging sign. He’s more than doubled his target share percentage in the last four games compared to the first six games of the season. And as of Monday, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond didn’t practice and their status for Thursday’s game is in question. LaPorta should be the main beneficiary if one or both WRs miss the game and he could use the extra offensive attention as a springboard to more substantial outings as the season wraps up.
Downgrade Lamb, but Don’t Count Him Out
We knew CeeDee Lamb was going to take a hit with Dak Prescott out for the season, but there were major concerns he’d drop down to a WR3-type player or even more of a flex option. In four full games with Cooper Rush at the helm, Lamb is the WR14 (with no touchdowns in that time frame) and is coming off a 12-target game. While Lamb is no longer the WR1 that was drafted at the beginning of the first round, he is still a formidable player and a comfortable WR2 moving forward. Rush knows who to get the ball to. Another plus is the remaining schedule, which is one of the more favorable schedules for wideouts the rest of the way.
Hopkins Losing Snaps but Still Go-To WR
Two weeks ago I noted that DeAndre Hopkins has helped Patrick Mahomes return to a weekly fantasy starter. Mahomes is the QB8 over the last four games and Hopkins is the WR25. But Hopkins, surprisingly, saw fewer snaps on Sunday than Justin Watson, Xavier Worthy, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. I’d consider this just a personnel decision based on Andy Reid’s offensive schemes. Watson and Worthy both lead the team with 484 total snaps this season but are not considered fantasy-relevant (Worthy is a boom-or-bust option). As a Hopkins manager, you’d prefer to see him on the field more, but take solace in the fact that whenever he’s in the game he’s the top option for Mahomes.
Terry McLaurin is the Commanders’ proven number-one target and is the WR5 on the year (excluding the Monday night game). But before a last-minute 86-yard touchdown on Sunday, Noah Brown was outperforming him with six catches for 71 yards. While Brown’s numbers have been a bit volatile over the past few weeks, he’s taken a firm hold of the WR2 spot, even out-snapping McLaurin in some games. Jayden Daniels has been in a slump since injuring his ribs a month ago but is starting to get back to form. Brown is capable of having big games—you may remember his back-to-back WR1 performances in Houston last year. Brown is a great fill-in WR if you’re dealing with injuries or need a player with boom potential who provides a decent enough floor.
Bail on Brooks in Redraft Leagues
Sorry to all the managers who waited this long to see Jonathon Brooks play professional football. He is a valuable dynasty asset, yes, but for redraft leagues, he’s a roster clogger. Chuba Hubbard has earned his role as Carolina’s workhorse back and continues to perform even in the most challenging situations, like putting up RB1 numbers against Kansas City this past Sunday. Brooks had just two carries for seven yards and didn’t touch the ball in the five-zone. This late in the season with roster spots extremely valuable for picking up an extra defense or blocking an opponent, Brooks can be added to the waiver pool.
Sutton Surpassing Expectations
Courtland Sutton has quietly been a top-10 wide receiver this season and is putting up his best year since his 2019 breakout campaign. It’s time to scream it for everyone to hear: Sutton is a bonafide WR1! Since his goose in Week 7, Sutton is averaging nearly 10 targets a game, over 93 receiving yards, and 21 fantasy points. Having a competent quarterback in Bo Nix has unlocked Sutton once again, who has always had the talent but never the QB to get him the ball. Hats off to all the fantasy managers who drafted Sutton this year and congrats to dynasty managers who should have a valuable WR as long as Nix is throwing him the ball.
