COLUMBIA, Mo. — Now for the stretch run.
No. 15 Missouri men’s basketball, along with the rest of the Southeastern Conference, is entering the final third of league play. At 8-4, the Tigers sit sixth in the conference. They’ve functionally secured their spot in the NCAA Tournament.
So the stretch run, then, is about seeding.
Bracketologists, at the moment, peg Mizzou as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. That still remains a rather sketchy science until the calendar turns to March.
Far more concrete is the race for seeding in the SEC Tournament, held March 12-16 in Nashville, Tennessee. The seeds awarded in that bracket will to some degree translate to March Madness, given that the SEC will likely produce two or three of the eventual No. 1 seeds in the national tournament.
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The race inside the SEC largely boils down to which programs wind up in the top four — a seven-team battle that raises the stakes for MU’s showdown Wednesday against No. 4 Alabama.
The top four SEC teams at the end of the regular season receive double byes during the tournament, which means they’ll enter the bracket at the quarterfinal stage. Seeds 9-16 play first, with the winners of those games meeting seeds 5-8. Those winners, in turn, get seeds 1-4 in the quarters.
As things stand through two-thirds of league play, seven teams seem to be in the mix for those top four spots. In order of standings, before Tuesday’s games tipped off: No. 1 Auburn (11-1 in the SEC), Alabama (10-2), No. 7 Texas A&M (9-3), No. 2 Florida (9-3), Missouri (8-4), No. 6 Tennessee (8-5) and No. 24 Mississippi (8-5).
By beating the Crimson Tide over the weekend, Auburn has solidified its case as the team most capable of pulling away to finish atop the conference. Alabama’s hold on the No. 2 spot may well slip, with all of its final six games coming against ranked opponents. At a minimum, seeds 3 and 4 are attainable for any of these programs.
That adds a little relish to matchups between teams in the top seven. Those are the kinds of games where the winner gains a game advantage — and head-to-head tiebreaker, which could be significant — over the loser, potentially serving as a key factor in how the SEC standings shake out.
Of these top seven teams, all have at least three games against fellow top seven programs between now and the end of the campaign — except for one: Mizzou.
Remaining schedules for the top seven teams in the SEC. Games against other top-seven teams are in bold and highlighted.
The Tigers host Alabama at 8 p.m. Wednesday, then face a mix of teams from the middle or bottom of the conference to close out the schedule.
What does that mean? The negative is that MU won’t have another chance to directly gain ground on teams to secure one of the top four seeds. Those chances have passed.
The positive might be stronger. While others in the top seven hand each other losses, Missouri will be outside of the fracas, theoretically picking up wins in more favorable matchups. There are enough pitfalls to keep the Tigers from coasting to the finish line — Arkansas is shaping up and will be a tough out on the road; Kentucky is ranked No. 17 — but they’ll be the favorites in most or all remaining games.
That’s a path to 12 or 13 wins, which is probably the bar for a top four seed.
Coach Dennis Gates, however, has set the bar higher.
“Job isn’t done on what we want to do, what we want to accomplish,” he said. “We want to win an SEC Championship. There’s enough games out there for us to possibly do that. The next phase of that is having a double bye, (finishing in spots) 1-4.”
So the stakes for Wednesday’s late tipoff that will play out in front of a sold-out crowd, barring weather interruptions for fans: the Tigers’ last chance to gain direct ground on a team above them in the race for the double bye.
And speaking of races: The MU-’Bama showdown could be a high-scoring, fast-paced affair. Alabama has the most efficient offense and fastest in the SEC, according to KenPom. At 74.3 possessions per game and only 15.3 seconds of the shot clock drained per possession, the Tide can move at a blistering pace.
Mizzou can be a quick and high-octane offense in its own right, but Alabama lies in a tier of its own from a speed standpoint.
“Both teams score, both teams play with pace,” Gates said. “Hopefully the ball falls for us, and I hope it doesn’t fall for them. It’s just that simple.”
The Crimson Tide are fresh off a loss to Auburn over the weekend that pitted the in-state rivals, ranked No. 1 and 2 at the time, against each other.
Guard Mark Sears has reprised as Alabama’s leading scorer, putting up 17.8 points per game. Bouncy forward Grant Nelson averages 12.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per game.
The Tide’s weakness, offensively, is turnovers: They’re 12th in the SEC, turning the ball over on 17.9% of offensive possessions. In their league loss to Ole Miss, they coughed it up 21 times.
A top-class opponent coming to Mizzou Arena won’t mean all that much has to change for Missouri, which is pushing to be classified in that tier of high-ceiling teams.
“I’m not changing the way we’re playing,” Gates said. “I’m not going to ever do that. We’re going to continue to have our guys play with confidence, play unselfishly, execute the game plan.”
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