It may very well be the game of the year in Columbia.
On Wednesday evening, No 16/15 Missouri basketball will host No. 4/4 Alabama for an 8 p.m. tipoff at Mizzou Arena. Both teams have likely locked up NCAA Tournament berths, and a loss in this two-way Quad 1 matchup won’t hurt either team’s March Madness résumé.
But it certainly could do the Tigers a world of good.
Mizzou (19-6, 8-4 SEC) enters the game in fifth place in the SEC standings after back-to-back double-digit wins over Oklahoma at home and Georgia on the road in the past week. With a win over the Crimson Tide, the Tigers would be in excellent standing for a double-bye in the SEC Tournament and a premium seed in the Big Dance.
Alabama (21-4, 10-2) is coming off one of the biggest games in recent college basketball history, losing at home to Auburn in a matchup between the No. 1- and 2-ranked teams in the country. The Crimson Tide’s only other loss in conference play this season was at home against Ole Miss. Otherwise, ‘Bama has been among the college basketball elite in recent months.
Before the massive matchup comes to Mizzou Arena, here is what you need to know about Alabama:
What are Alabama’s strengths leading into Missouri basketball game?
This Alabama squad can get a crimson shade of red-hot.
For what the Crimson Tide lack in 3-point efficiency, they make up for in 3-point attempts. Oats’ team lofts nearly 30 shots from behind the arc per game, which is in the top 2% of all teams in the country, according to CBB Analytics. They make 33.4% of those, which is just inside the top half of teams in the nation. That’s 10 triples per game, and guards like Aden Holloway and Chris Youngblood are prone to get on streaks.
And the Tide can trip you up all over. Behind dynamic guard Labaron Philon and big man Grant Nelson, Alabama is in the 99th percentile in the country with a 60.3% mark from inside the arc. They’re in the 99th percentile, essentially tied with Mizzou, by averaging 26.8 free throw attempts per game.
Find a way to stop the Tide from scoring, and you’re the outlier. The analytics site KenPom ranks Alabama’s adjusted offensive rating at No. 2 in the nation. The Crimson Tide have eclipsed 100 points seven times this season. They haven’t scored less than 80 since Jan. 14.
Sizzlin’ hot, and not easy to stop.
What are Alabama’s weaknesses?
The sore thumb on ‘Bama’s statistical profile is something that might actually play into Missouri’s strengths.
The Crimson Tide are confoundingly bad at forcing turnovers, and more or less middle of the road at holding on to possession themselves.
CBB Analytics charts Alabama with the lowest steal percentage in the league, coming up with a takeaway on fewer than 8% of its defensive possessions. The Tide’s opponent turnover percentage of 11.5% ranks in just 3rd percentile in the country.
This isn’t to say a bad defense is coming to Columbia. KenPom still places the Tide at No. 38 in the country for adjusted defensive efficiency.
But the numbers suggest Alabama isn’t going to be particularly aggressive when Mizzou is in possession. And since the Crimson Tide’s own turnover rate ranks among the bottom five in the SEC, coughing the ball up on 14.8% of their possessions, that’s an area to watch Wednesday.
Player to watch: Mark Sears
Alabama’s point was viewed as a preseason candidate for national player of the year, and while he’s not quite at those lofty heights in mid-February, Sears is still the backbone of the Crimson Tide.
He’s a volume shooter from 3, and averages 17.8 points and 4.8 assists per game. Because of how multiple they are on offense, the Tide can space teams out. Sears is the player to watch out for both from behind the arc and attacking the rim.
Something to watch: Oats sent Sears to the bench for a full half in a win over LSU in late-January, seemingly as a challenge to his defensive effort. Whoever is tasked the primary duties of matching up with Sears — Robinson, Tony Perkins or Mitchell stick out as the likely candidates — may want to try and test that intensity early.
Where can Mizzou create matchup advantages?
Pick your plan.
Do you want to try and go toe-to-toe and get into a shootout with perhaps the hottest offense in the country? Do you want to attempt to slow them down and out of rhythm?
Mizzou has shown it can win in a variety of ways. Caleb Grill’s deep-ball ability, Mark Mitchell’s inside prowess and Anthony Robinson II’s defense-turned-instant-offense have all taken over games recently.
Where will they go?
The best option appears to be to try and speed the game up as much as possible — quick, aggressive defense to accentuate the turnover disparity and efficient work in transition.
Ole Miss won the turnover margin 21-7 when it won in Tuscaloosa. Auburn only gave the ball away four times in its win Saturday.
Score prediction: Missouri 94, Alabama 93
Why not? If Mizzou can get the crowd on its side early and find its groove in a shootout, there’s no reason not to expect fireworks. It’s going to require Missouri’s best, but we’re seeing that more and more often from the Tigers recently.
