The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Baltimore Ravens on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Pat Freiermuth.
Is Pat Freiermuth Playing vs. the Ravens?
Freiermuth is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Steelers’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Pat Freiermuth on Wild Card Weekend?
It took Pat Freiermuth just 78 targets this season to haul in a career-high 65 passes, a level of efficiency that is very encouraging. Freiermuth’s path to mattering in DFS this week is through volume in a very conservative offense that will be designed to stay on the field and, thus, keep Lamar Jackson off of it.
There are some minor trends to like. The fact that Freiermuth has been targeted on 13 of his 49 playoff routes speaks to the comfort-food sort of role he assumes this time of year. Plus, he did catch every pass thrown his way against the Ravens during the regular season.
Of course, there are two sides of that coin. It took Freiermuth 58 routes to earn those five targets that produced just 30 yards (8.5% on-field target share, down from his 17.9% rate in all other games).
Pittsburgh’s 17 implied point total is a major concern and is why I’m not too interested in going in this direction in any format. I think you’re looking at 5-7 PPR points this week with limited win equity — that’s not going to cut it in any level of playoff fantasy competition.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Pat Freiermuth’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Saturday, Freiermuth is projected to score 16.2 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 6.7 receptions for 66.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Ravens’ Defense
The 2023 Ravens led the league in scoring defense but only ranked 10th in Defense+. This year’s Ravens fell to ninth in scoring defense but fared better in Defense+.
That’s a scary thought for opposing teams entering the playoffs, as Baltimore has fully peaked into becoming one of the most well-rounded teams remaining. Since moving Kyle Hamilton to safety in Week 11, the Ravens rank first in points per drive, first in EPA per dropback, first in third-down defense, and first in red-zone defense.
Paired with a run defense that has been elite all season, Baltimore suddenly looks like one of the scariest No. 3 seeds in recent memory. With the offense playing at an elite level led by MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, Baltimore could be better equipped to make the Super Bowl than last year’s team, even without the advantage of the top seed.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Pat Freiermuth’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Saturday, January 11. If you’re in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card TE PPR Rankings
1) Mark Andrews | BAL (vs. PIT)
2) T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at LAR)
3) Zach Ertz | WAS (at TB)
4) Pat Freiermuth | PIT (at BAL)
5) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. DEN)
6) Tucker Kraft | GB (at PHI)
7) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. GB)
8) Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs. PIT)
9) Will Dissly | LAC (at HOU)
10) Tyler Higbee | LAR (vs. MIN)
11) Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs. LAC)
12) Payne Durham | TB (vs. WAS)
13) Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. DEN)
14) Cade Otton | TB (vs. WAS)
15) Stone Smartt | LAC (at HOU)
16) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. GB)
17) Luke Musgrave | GB (at PHI)
18) Darnell Washington | PIT (at BAL)
19) Josh Oliver | MIN (at LAR)
20) Lucas Krull | DEN (at BUF)
21) Cade Stover | HOU (vs. LAC)
22) Hayden Hurst | LAC (at HOU)
23) Nate Adkins | DEN (at BUF)
24) Colby Parkinson | LAR (vs. MIN)
25) Devin Culp | TB (vs. WAS)
26) John Bates | WAS (at TB)
27) Adam Trautman | DEN (at BUF)
28) Tucker Fisk | LAC (at HOU)
29) Davis Allen | LAR (vs. MIN)
30) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at TB)
31) MyCole Pruitt | PIT (at BAL)
32) Ko Kieft | TB (vs. WAS)
33) E.J. Jenkins | PHI (vs. GB)
34) Johnny Mundt | MIN (at LAR)
35) Connor Heyward | PIT (at BAL)
Steelers at Ravens Trends and Insights
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The 2011 Giants are the only team since 2000 to win a Super Bowl in a season that included a four-game losing streak (the Steelers have lost four straight, totaling just 57 points across those games).
QB: Russell Wilson’s pressure stats are a major concern as we get into the postseason.
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 12-14: 120.7 (would lead the NFL)
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 15-18: 43.9 (worse than Kirk Cousins)
Offense: Saturday’s loss to the Bengals was Pittsburgh’s first this season when not turning the ball over (they won the first four such instances, out-scoring opponents 100-44 in those games).
Defense: The Steelers are 1-5 this season when allowing opponents to pick up at least 37% of their third downs this season (lone win: Week 13 at Bengals).
Fantasy: The Najee Harris train has run out of gas, partly due to this offense:
- Weeks 6-14: 4.2% production over expectation, 4.0 red zone touches per game
- Weeks 15-18: 16.8% production below expectations, 2.0 red zone touches per game
Betting: Mike Tomlin doesn’t just excel at winning games on the field – his Steelers have posted a winning ATS record in 10 of the past 12 seasons (2024: 11-6, 64.7%).
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The UConn Huskies won a national championship in 2023. Why does that matter? They also won in 1999 and 2011, the season prior to the Ravens winning their most recent Super Bowls.
QB: In the last two seasons under Todd Monken, Lamar Jackson has been a different QB:
- 2023-24: 66.9% complete, 8.4 yards per attempt, 7.0% TD, 1.2% INT
- Career prior: 63.7% complete, 7.4 yards per attempt, 6.1%, 2.3% INT
Offense: The Ravens turned the ball over at least once in six of their first seven games – they’ve done it in just three of 10 games since.
Defense: In Weeks 11-18, Baltimore allowed 1.38 points per drive (Weeks 1-10: 2.30)
Fantasy: Since Week 12, Derrick Henry has been even more dangerous than normal when it comes to chunk gains.
- Weeks 1-11: 37.6% of carries gained 5+ yards (11.7% gained 10+ yards)
- Weeks 12-18: 49.2% of carries gained 5+ yards (17.2% gained 10+ yards)
Betting: No team cashed over tickets more often than the Ravens during the regular season (13-4), quite the change for a franchise that had more unders than overs in each of the four seasons prior.
