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CHAMPAIGN — Culture can form habitual behavior that manifests in distinct outcomes over time.
That’s one way of saying that you anticipated the football playoff losses of Indiana, SMU and Tennessee — the oft-brilliant Vols have nine losing seasons since 2008 — in the lopsided opening round.
Culture has its way of creeping into these events. We anticipated those results because we doubted that Indiana and SMU belonged. And love ‘em or hate ‘em, we’ve grown accustomed to the consistency of Notre Dame, Penn State and Ohio State over time.
This same culture is part of the mountain Illinois must climb on Tuesday. The underdog Illini have never faced South Carolina but stand 0-6 against SEC members.
Furthermore, since Jan. 1, 1964, when the late Dick Butkus sparked a 17-7 defeat of Washington in the Rose Bowl, the Illini are 5-12 in mostly secondary bowls. The biggest win may have come in 1990 over Virginia (31-21) in this same Citrus Bowl, but my favorite was the 38-14 defeat of Baylor in the 2010 Texas Bowl with Nathan Scheelhaase outplaying Robert Griffin III.
Sitting it out
Who’ll step up in behalf of Illinois’ premier performer, Pat Bryant?
The answer is no one can be expected to match an extraordinary season in which he caught the winning passes in overtime against Nebraska and Purdue, and the remarkable 40-yard game saver with four seconds left at Rutgers.
The short-pass game may be effective but the Illini need a vertical threat to prevent the Gamecocks from overloading up front. That’s where Bryant excelled, averaging 18.2 yards per catch.
Meanwhile, South Carolina will be without 881-yard, 11-TD running back Rocket Sanders and super-star Kyle Kennard, the Nagurski Award winner at defensive end.
The opt-outs by Sanders and Kennard don’t change the likelihood that the ground game favors the Gamecocks. And that’s essentially because 240-pound quarterback LaNorris Sellers is one of the premier ball-carriers in the country (655 yards rushing, 2,274 yards passing).
Running QBs have been a problem for Illinois this season. Forewarned is forearmed in this case.
Portal perusal
Defensive coordinator Aaron Henry and the Illini made big news in the portal last week in landing three members of Wisconsin’s front five.
If you look back to November, you’ll see edge Leon Lowery Jr. and nose Curt Neal were Badger starters and 6-7, 290-pound James Thompson Jr., a multi-year regular, was earning a redshirt due to an injury.
They are Illini now, and poised to bolster the most needy sector of the UI team.
The Badgers finished 5-7 and their shoddy defense left concerns about their talent, but consider that they lost to Alabama, Southern Cal, Penn State, Iowa and Oregon before crumbling in the last two games against Nebraska and Minnesota. The Badgers, who have seen at least 25 varsitymen enter the portal, face anther challenging campaign with early trips to Alabama and Michigan, and back-to-back dates with Ohio State and Oregon, all before hosting Illinois and their former teammates Nov. 22.
Scheduling is critical in an 18-team conference. It makes you wonder how Indiana would have done with Wisconsin’s 2024 schedule … Alabama, Oregon, Penn State, ugh.
Rosters in flux
Legal scholars on the bench are making it impossible for the NCAA to determine its own rules.
Transfers became widespread when a judge ruled that the NCAA can’t require a year in residency. Nor can schools prevent athletes any longer from capitalizing on their ability to draw pay for play.
Those two rulings are causing incredible chaos. And this latest ruling involving Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia is an even greater shock. Pavia attended a year of junior college, and a district court judge says that doesn’t count against his Division I eligibility. So, of course, the NCAA will appeal, but at the same time has granted a waiver for all junior college athletes with expiring NCAA eligibility to play in 2025.
This paints a new picture, an entirely different option, for juco transfers like Illini left tackle J.C. Davis. Next year’s UI lineup just keeps changing … daily … in December.
